Friday, May 13, 2011

Result Flash on Lupin for 4QFY2011


Result Flash on Lupin for 4QFY2011 with a Buy recommendation.
4QFY2011 Financials Snapshot:

Y/E March (`cr)
4QFY2011
3QFY2011
% chg qoq
4QFY2010
% chg yoy
Net Sales
1,512
1,467
3.0
1,286
17.5
Other Income
45
46
(2.4)
54
(15.9)
Operating Profit
269
254
5.7
250
7.4
Interest
8
8
0.5
8
0.1
Net Profit
227
224
1.4
221
3.0

4QFY2011 Financials Actuals v/s Estimates

(` cr)
Actual
Estimates
Variation
Net Sales
1,512
1,489
1.5
Other Income
45
54
(16.1)
Operating Profit
269
277
(3.0)
Interest
7.8
8
(5.1)
Tax
31
32
(2.4)
Net Profit
227
239
(4.8)

4QFY2011 Consolidated Financial Result Highlights-  

·         The Net Sales for the quarter under review for the company stood at `1,512cr (`1286cr) an increase of 17.5% yoy, higher than our estimates of `1489cr. This was backed by the growth in the domestic (grew by 20%) and advanced markets (grew by 10%) formulations segment. For the full year, the net sales increased by 19.5% yoy to `5707cr.
·         The company reported gross margins of 59.3% compared to 62.0% in the same quarter last year. As a result OPM contracted to 17.8% (19.5%) for the quarter, lower than our estimates of 18.6%. For FY2011, the gross margins came in at 60.8% (58.7%), translating to OPM of 18.7% (18.6%).
·         The net profit that came in at `227cr (`220.6cr), increase of 3%, lower than our estimates of `239cr for the quarter. For FY2011, PAT came in at `863cr (`682cr), growth of 26.5%.
·         During the full year, the company filed 21ANDAs and 7 DMFs  with 8 approvals received during the year.

4QFY2011 Consolidated Financial Performance:

Y/E March (`cr)
4QFY2011
3QFY2011
% chg
(qoq)
4QFY2010
% chg (yoy)
FY2011
FY2010
% chg
(yoy)
Net sales
1,512
1,467
3.0
1,286
17.5
5,707
4,774
19.5
Other income
45
46
(2.4)
54
(15.9)
134
111
20.4
Total income
1,557
1,514
2.9
1,340
16.2
5,841
4,885
19.6
Gross profit
897
897
(0.1)
798
12.4
3,469
2,804
23.7
Gross margins
59.3
61.2

62.0

60.8
58.7

Operating profit
268.7
254
5.7
250
7.4
1,066
887
20.2
OPM (%)
17.8
17.3

19.5

18.7
18.6

Interest
8
8
0.5
8
0.1
32
38
(15.7)
Dep & amortisation
46
41
12.0
41
13.5
171
124
38.1
PBT
260
252
3.3
256
1.7
996
836
19.2
Provision for taxation
31
24
31.4
29
6.5
117
136
(14.0)
Reported net profit
229
228
0.4
226
1.1
879
700
25.7
Less : exceptional items
-
-

-

-
-

MI & share in associates
2
4
(58.2)
4
(64.2)
17
18
(6.7)
PAT after exceptional items
227
224
1.4
221
3.0
863
682
26.5
EPS (`)
5.1
5.0

5.0

19.3
15.3


The stock is currently trading at 19.2 FY2012E and 14.0x FY2013E earnings. We currently have a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `560. We shall revise our estimates post the management interaction.
Key financials:

Y/E March (Rs.cr)
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011E
FY2012E
FY2013E
Net sales
3,776
4,741
5,707
6,696
8,699
% chg
39.5
25.6
20.4
17.3
29.9
Net profit
502
681
863
976
1,339
% chg
22.8
35.9
26.6
13.1
37.2
EPS (`)
12.1
15.3
19.3
21.9
30.1
EBITDA margin (%)
17.2
18.0
18.7
18.3
18.3
P/E (x)
34.7
27.4
21.8
19.2
14.0
RoE (%)
37.1
36.7
31.8
29.6
32.0
RoCE (%)
20.8
23.3
24.2
22.6
24.0
P/BV (x)
12.2
8.2
6.4
5.1
4.0
EV/sales (x)
4.9
4.1
3.5
2.9
2.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
28.6
22.9
18.3
16.0
12.2

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