Stock Market Update on ACC for 2QCY2011

StockMarket Update on ACC for 2QCY2011 with a Neutral recommendation

For 2QCY2011, ACC posted a 6.2% decline in its bottom line; however, it was ahead of our estimates. The bottom-line decline was despite higher realisations, as the company faced margin pressure on account of higher power and fuel costs and freight costs. During the quarter, ACC faced the full impact of the domestic coal price hike carried out by Coal India. Realisation was higher as cement prices, which touched the peak in March 2011 remained strong until May.
At current levels, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

OPM at 24.1%, down 527bp yoy:  ACC posted an 18.9% yoy growth in net sales to `2,403cr on account of growth in dispatches and better realisation.
The company’s dispatches for the quarter stood at 5.9mn tonnes, up 12.5% yoy, on account of higher capacity (on a yoy basis) operational at Wadi and Chanda during the quarter. However, on a sequential basis, dispatches declined by 3.7%, indicating the lukewarm demand scenario. Realisation also improved by 5.7% yoy and 4.1% qoq to `4,052/tonne.

Outlook and valuation: All-India cement dispatches, which witnessed a marginal decline in 1QFY2012, are expected to pick-up post the monsoons. Demand growth is expected to be driven by infrastructure activities with FY2012 being the last year of the Eleventh Plan. However, the ongoing SFIO investigation on cement pricing might soften the extent of price recovery. We expect ACC to register a 16.0% CAGR in its top line over CY2010–12, aided by capacity addition. However, the bottom line is expected to grow at a lower CAGR of 4.6% over the mentioned period due to higher operating costs. At current levels, the stock is trading at EV/EBITDA of 6.8x and EV/tonne of US$110, based on CY2012 estimates. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock, as we believe it is fairly priced.