The Indian markets are expected to open in the red tracing negative opening in most of the Asian bourses and the SGX Nifty. Asian stocks were trading lower after comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke overshadowed China’s first interest-rate cut since 2008.
The People’s Bank of China has lowered its benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points. The announcement, two days before China is due to report inflation, investment and output figures, may signal that the economy is weaker than the government expected. Bernanke said the central bank will need to assess conditions before deciding if more measures are needed to stoke an economy threatened by Europe’s debt crisis and U.S. budget cuts.
Meanwhile Indian shares extended recent gains on Thursday after the rupee breached the 55 mark to hit a two-week high against the dollar reflecting a return of appetite for risk. Talks of the government giving a big push to infrastructure development bolstered sentiments. Although there were reports of the Union Cabinet deferring a decision on the Pension Bill due to lack of consensus, the benchmark indices ended the trading day with significant gains.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,617/5,039 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 16,713 – 16,777/5,070 – 5,091 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 16,617/5,039 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 16,552 – 16,456/5,018 – 4,987 levels.
China cut borrowing costs
China reduced interest rates for the first time since 2008 and loosened controls on banks’ lending and deposit rates, in its bid to combat a deepening slowdown as Europe’s ongoing debt crisis threatens global growth. The one-year lending rate and one-year deposit rate were reduced by 25bps to 6.31%, and 3.25%, respectively. Banks are now given more leeway to offer upto 10% higher than benchmark deposit rate to depositors and to charge upto 20% lower than the key benchmark lending rate (previously 10%).
RIL plans a capex of Rs.100,000cr over next 4 years
Reliance Industries (RIL) conducted its Annual General Meeting (AGM) for FY2012. With cash and equivalents of ~Rs.80,000cr as of March 31, 2012 on RIL’s balance sheet, Chairman Mr. Mukesh Ambani announced that the company plans to invest Rs.100,000cr across business segments over the coming four years. It targets to invest ~US$3.5bn on shale gas. On its core petrochemical business, RIL aims to increase its capacity to 25mn tonnes from the current 15mn tonnes and also invest in operational efficiency projects. RIL aims to become a market leader in retail business and targets to achieve top-line of Rs.40,000-50,000cr over the next threefour years (current top-line Rs.7,600cr). Further RIL informed that although KG D6 production has declined over the past one year to 34mmscmd, it aims to raise total gas production to 60mmscmd by 2015. On profitability front, Mr. Ambani said that RIL aimed to double its operating profits in the coming five years. RIL has bought back 2.79cr shares at a cost of Rs.1,929cr under its share-buyback program. Alongside decline in KG D6 gas output, deployment of huge cash pile was amongst the key concerns on the stock. Clarity over deployment of cash is positive in our view. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs.879.
L&T bags orders worth Rs.2,410cr
L&T’s construction arm has won Rs.2,410cr new orders across various businesses during April-June 2012. The Buildings and Factories IC has secured new orders worth Rs.1,921cr. The orders are from leading developers for the construction of major residential towers across various cities in the northern part of the country. L&T Infrastructure IC has won orders to the tune of Rs.345cr for the design and construction of viaducts and three elevated stations from Delhi Metro Rail Corporation which also includes additional orders from various ongoing projects. Water effluent and treatment business has bagged new orders worth Rs.244cr from Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board for upgrading the existing water distribution systems including additional orders from various ongoing projects.
At the CMP of Rs.1,277, the stock is trading at 16.7x FY2014E earnings and 2.4x FY2014E P/BV on a standalone basis. We have used the SOTP methodology to value the company to capture all its business initiatives and investments/stakes in different businesses. Ascribing separate values to its parent business on a P/E basis and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and mcap basis, our target price works out to Rs.1,553, which provides 21.6% upside from current levels. We recommend Buy on the stock.
Economic and Political News
- People’s Bank of China cuts interest rates as economy continues to slide
- Monsoon 36% below average in first week: IMD
- PM's push for infra sector to boost investor confidence: CII
- Cabinet defers decision on pension reforms bill
Corporate News
- Tata Steel to set up Rs.30,000cr plant in Karnataka
- Suzlon to invest Rs.15,000cr to set up a 2,500 MW wind farm in Karnataka
- Dr Reddy's launches generic Parkinson's disease tablets in US
- BHEL commissions 250MW unit at UP thermal power project
- Jubiliant Life Sciences to invest ~Rs.1,000cr across businesses in Karnataka
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